The market seems to be following through quite well on the upside continuation to complete wave 3. As of my writing this, we seem to be completing the micro 3rd wave off last week’s pullback low.
As you can see on the 5-minute SPX chart attached, the ideal structure still should see one more micro 4-5 before we complete this larger degree 3rd wave structure. I have also included the 5-minute ES chart, so you can see it a bit more zoomed in.
For now, the 1.00 extension on the ES chart in the 4995ES region is the ideal support for the next smaller pullback. As long as that is generally held as support, I think the market can make one more attempt to push towards the 5017SPX region to complete the larger degree wave 3.
However, should we break down below 4985ES (the .764 extension on the ES chart) at any point in time now, it is an early signal that the larger wave 4 pullback has begun, which will likely point us to the 4800-4860SPX region over the coming weeks, with the 4840SPX region being a point with much confluence as outlined yesterday.
And, clearly, a break down below 4800SPX will open the door to the yellow count again.