Going Nowhere Fast - Market Analysis for Mar 18th, 2021


Not much has changed from my update this morning.  So, much we will depend on whether today’s low is broken in the ES, followed by yesterday’s low in the RTY.

In the grand scheme of things, the market is still not yet read for a break out in wave 3, as we have no confidence that waves 1 and 2 are in place.  Moreover, the bears still are seeing yellow, as that potential has not yet been taken off the chart, and it remains a stronger probability than I had hoped for at this point.

Ultimately, we still need higher highs in both the RTY/IWM and ES/SPX to provide us with a more likely 5-wave structure off the low struck earlier this month.  And, if we cannot complete the upside, well, the potential for revisiting the 3700SPX region still remains on the chart in yellow.   It really is time the market finally makes up its mind.  

But, remember, when it does, we still will not be prepared to rally to 4400 just yet.  Even if we do get that higher high, we still need a wave 2 pullback.  So, what I noted earlier in the chat room still applies:  No matter what the market does here, we will likely be back where we are right now next week, or even potentially lower.  So, you may want to consider lowering your risk at this point in time.

5minES
5minES
5minSPX
5minSPX
60minSPX
60minSPX
5minRTY
5minRTY
60minIWM
60minIWM
Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net.