Fast Moving Market - Market Analysis for Aug 1st, 2024

We have seen some sizeable moves of late in the SPX.  And, they have been in both directions, which is why so many have felt so whipsawed.  Yet, I cannot say that this was to be unexpected, as even in the best case scenario of new all-time highs in the market, it will likely take shape as 3-wave structures which often feel like whipsaw action.

So, as we stand today, I have to assume that we have completed the [c] wave of an a-wave of the larger degree [a] wave of wave v in the SPX.  You can see this visually outlined on the 5-minute chart for more clarity.  That places us in a b-wave pullback, which seems to have taken shape rather quickly.   I am primarily viewing this drop today as a [c] wave within that b-wave pullback.

Earlier today, I placed the blue support box on the chart for the b-wave.   As I write this, we are already below the .618 retracement.  And, to be honest, I would start to get a bit uncomfortable should we see a break down below the .764 retracement in the 5430SPX region.

To be honest, I feel uncomfortable being long in this market all together, and have outlined my views many times before.  But, as long as the market can maintain this current structure, and we have not seen any clear indications of a 5-wave decline off the recent highs, I have to assume the market is going to attempt one more rally to 5800+ before we complete this long-term bull market.

If you want to attempt a short-term trade to the long side with a bit more confidence, you may want to wait until we see the market hold support and provide us with a 1-2 set up, as outlined on the 5-minute chart.   Remember, the next move should be a c-wave of wave [a], which should take us back towards the prior all-time highs.   And, since c-waves are most commonly standard Fibonacci Pinball 5-wave structures, it would make sense to allow the market to provide us with that 1-2 set up before trading more aggressively on the long side.

For now, I remain quite cautious of this market, but still retain a bias towards one more rally to 5800+ as I have not seen any strong indication of a 5-wave decline off the recent high, and we have not yet broken any major support.  Should we break below the recent lows, this view may change.