Extremely Bullish Set Up May Be Developing

It was reported that when John Maynard Keyenes was once asked why he changed his opinion on a certain matter, he supposedly responded: “When the facts change, I change my mind.  What do you do sir?”

Well, to date, I have been seeking a bigger pullback in the market.  However, the market has been exceptionally stingy with pullbacks.  And, I am seeing warning signs of this potentially happening yet again.  So, it is my duty to outline that potential to you, despite my desire for a fuller pullback in the market.  

You see, my perspective when I provide analysis is to tell you what I see in the market, rather than what I ideally want to see.  While I can always start with my ideal expectations based upon the common standards that we track, if the market provides to me clues that my ideal expectations will not play out, I have a responsibility to let you know of that potential as early as I see that potential rather than remain stubbornly within my prior expectations, as that would help no one.  So, while my primary perspective has always been to rally over 4000SPX off the 2200SPX lows we struck in March, the speed with which we may be getting there has certainly even surprised me.

While we already know that the market only provided us with a very shallow .236 retracement for what is now being counted as [ii], we then developed a 5-wave structure off that low, which we have been tracking as wave [1] of wave [iii].  Moreover, since that was potentially completed early last week with a spike high and then followed by a pullback, we have been tracking that pullback as a wave [2].  

Since the market provided us with an a-b-c pullback into the .382 retracement of the wave [1] rally, I initially expected that to be the [a] wave of wave [2].  However, since that pullback completed, the market has now provided us with the potential set up for another 5-wave micro rally to be pointing us towards the 3660SPX, which can potentially be wave 1 of wave [3] of [iii].   In order for this to occur, we MUST hold over today’s low and continue to rally into tomorrow.

Should the market then complete this micro 5-wave structure towards 3660SPX, then the pullback thereafter will be of utmost importance.  If the pullback is corrective in nature, and price remains over 3512SPX, and then we rally strongly over the high of wave 1, then we are likely in the melt-up-mode of wave 3 of [3] of [iii], and heading strongly towards the 4200/4300SPX region.

Again, there are still a number of hoops we must jump through in order to trigger this immediate potential, but with the action we have seen today, I have to at least prepare you for this potential and outline the parameters for its occurrence.  

Any falter along the way will likely provide us with more of a wave [2] that I had ideally wanted to see.   However, the next few days will likely provide us with the necessary wave structure to tell us if we will be breaking out to our major market pivot noted on the 60-minute chart sooner rather than later.

So, while my preference has been to see more of a pullback before we rally to 4000+, I have outlined the potential set up which may take us there much sooner than I had ever expected.  Therefore, we must remain vigilant and respect the bullishness the market is presenting IF it should provide us with that break out set up sooner rather than later.

Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net.