Downside Follow Through Incomplete

Yesterday, the evening update outlined how the market was set up to target the 1795-1805SPX region, and we were over the 1860 level at the time the update came out. With the market dropping down and bottoming today at the 1810SPX level, before abruptly turning back up, we have enough waves in place to consider wave (iii) completed, even though it did come up a few points short.

For now, we still have an incomplete bottoming pattern. The manner in which I am counting it still needs the dreaded one more lower low. And, as long as we remain below the resistance box on the 5 minute chart between 1851-1870SPX, then I am going to expect one more lower low. However, if the market is able to move through that resistance zone, then I will have to bring back the potential for the yellow count, with this being an expanded (b) wave, but with the target for the (c) wave being the prior (a) wave high at 1945SPX.

Now, the potential does exist that the market has bottomed already, but I would not say it was a high probability. Nonetheless, I think it is becoming more dangerous to be shorting the market for what may only be its final squiggles to a lower low. Day trading these moves will likely be much safer.