Differences Between Ending Diagonal And 3225SPX Target

The path to 3225SPX is pretty straight forward.  We must hold 2880SPX.  We must rally through 2956SPX, without then breaking back below 2930.  We must then extend to 3005.

The bullish path is rather simple, but the market will have to thread that needle ever so carefully in the coming weeks.

But, take note that there are many ways this market can lead us clearly to the ending diagonal conclusion:

1 – Direct break of 2880SPX

2 -  Rally to 2956SPX, and then turning down and breaking 2930SPX.

3 – Direct rally from here (without more of a pullback) would also make me much more concerned about the ending diagonal.

As far as number 3 is concerned, remember that if we are on our way to 3225, that is with a standard impulsive rally.  The rally thus far off the lows we struck this week is only a 3 wave move off the lows, which is not a strong indication of the more bullish potential.  This will clearly keep me on my toes in the coming week should we see a direct break out from here, rather than a c-wave lower.

So, ultimately, the market still has the strong opportunity to break out and prove the heart of a 3rd wave pointing to 3005 initially for wave 3 of (3).  But, please do not ignore the pitfalls along the way.  Should the market slip along this path, the consequences can be considerable.

Lastly, please take note again that I have moved up the bullish support to 2880SPX for the path to 3225SPX.  A sustained break of that level will place me into the ending diagonal count, and even suggesting that wave (iii) may have completed.

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Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net.