Decline Took Shape, But Are We Approaching A Bottom Already?
By
Avi Gilburt
Boy, that was faster than I expected. Yet, the Russell index was the key in this set up. So, let’s start there.
As we can see, the 60-minute chart is filling in quite nicely. And, as I mentioned, while the 168.11 level is the ideal target, we may come up short and see a double bottom or even a truncated bottom. And, this is one I would be willing to accept.
In the smaller degree count that I added on the 3-minute IWM chart, I am viewing us as completing wave [5] of [iii] in this 5th wave of the c-wave. Micro resistance is the 171.85 region. As long as that is held, then it would indicate we can see one more lower low in the wave [5] of [iii]. But, should we be able to get through that resistance, then I am viewing us in wave [iv] bounce.
The ideal target for wave [iv] is in the 173 region, which is the .382 retracement of wave [iii] (and, if we drop lower, it would likely move slightly lower). But, the main point is that we likely have one more bounce before a final low is struck. And, should we see a strong move through 173, then I have to assume the bottom is in place already. For now, I still expect the [iv][v] to play out and take us closer to the prior lows, if not the 168.11 ideal target.
As far as the SPX, well, that [b] wave which I was outlining yesterday seems to be the most likely path at this time. And, as long as that support box holds (especially the upper half of the box), then I will likely use this as my primary count.
Moreover, should the market hold this support and then break out over 4401SPX, then we likely have a bottom in place. But, keep in mind that this would likely mean that the rally to 4800SPX will take shape as a larger a-b-c structure, of which we would have completed the [a] and [b] waves of the a-wave.
In summary, I am going to be continuing to follow the IWM chart, as it seems to have the cleanest pattern. And, as long as we hold over 168.11, and are able to rally strongly through 173 in the coming days, then I am going to assume we have a bottom struck in this corrective c-wave decline.
