Decision Time - Market Analysis for Feb 25th, 2026
By
Avi Gilburt
For this afternoon's update, I am simply going to repost two alerts I presented in the room today, as it really lays out how I see the smaller degree structure right now:
10:25AM Alert:
These two paths are now coming to a head. We have moved through the pivot on the SPX structure, which normally suggests we are moving higher in a wave iii of 3. But, there are a number of issues here. First, we are approaching the 1.00 extension, which could be all of the a-b-c of a corrective rally as shown on the 15-minute ES chart, which is also approaching the .764 retrace of the initial 5-wave decline. That leans to a bit more of a bearish interpretation.
However, if the SPX can get to the 1.00 extension and hold over the pivot on the 5-minute SPX chart, this would give us a strong indication that the bulls will remain in control and our minimum target in this structure would be the 2.00 extension of waves 1-2, which is the 7098 region.
But, with a projection that low, and not really overlapping with any larger degree targeting, it does tell me that either this is a corrective rally as shown in purple, or wave 3 can provide us with some sizeable extensions once we break out to new all time highs.
So, as I said, I am assuming this is going to resolve pretty soon. And, should we break back down towards the recent lows in a 5-wave structure, that would turn me bearish as that would likely be wave i of wave 3 down. I have also adjusted the pivot on the downside so you can use that as a guide as well.
3:59PM Alert:
SPX is now approaching the 1.00 extension. The pivot is going to be key. At this time, if this is really the yellow (c) wave high, we should blow through the 1.00 extension ideally on the way to the 1382 extension for just wave iii of 3. So, in truth, you do not want to see the market break below the top of the pivot, as that would be an initial warning of the potential purple count.
I have to now assume that by tomorrow only one of these two patterns will remain standing. For now, the bulls have the ball. And, if you want to tighten stops on longs, you can either put it below the .618 or the below the wave ii. But, I would suggest you tighten stops on longs.
