Continued Extension - Market Analysis for Feb 6th, 2020
By
Avi Gilburt
Not much has really changed in my analysis from last night other than the fact that the market has extended a bit more in this 3rd wave (possibly b-wave), as I currently have it counted. And, as I noted last night, the more extended wave 1 of [5] gets in the bullish structure, the more likely it is we can reach our ideal target of 3711SPX for wave [5] of iii.
Yet, in the meantime, I cannot say we are completely out of the woods. The market has still not completed all 5 waves up in the ideal structure for wave 1. Moreover, Luke Miller’s Bayseian probabilities have maintained their approximately 80% probability for a decline back down to last week’s lows and potentially lower. And, lastly, when I review the ES/futures structure, I can count a leading diagonal 5-waves down off the overnight high. But, please remember that I do not view leading diagonals as high probability structures upon which I would personally trade, unless there were other reasons to do so.
So, what are other reasons I would consider? Well, the problem is that as long as this market maintains over 3290ES, I cannot maintain high confidence that the wave structure will follow through on the Bayesian probabilities for a c-wave decline. But, should we see a break down below 3290ES, then the wave structure will align with the Bayesian probabilities at that time, at least in my opinion.
Therefore, in summary, my analysis is rather simple. As long as the market remains over 3290ES, I have to side with a bullish bias. But, should we follow through with an impulsive decline below 3290ES, then I can again begin to target the 3155-3190 region for a c-wave of (4).
Lastly, I wanted to include the EEM today as well, since I said I was going to keep my eyes on it. We have now gotten the “bounce” I expected after we completed what counts well as a 5-wave decline off resistance. Therefore, as long as the EEM remains below January’s high, I still view this as a bearish structure. It would still have to break out over the high struck in January for me to consider otherwise.
