Complexity Is The Name Of The Game

With the market completing the 5-wave structure I was highlighting yesterday, and then followed by a strong reversal, we have again moved from a relatively clear picture, to one of greater complexity.  So, allow me to explain.

In my primary count in blue, and with us striking a high in the pre-market hours which is in the 3040SPX region, we have enough waves in place to consider wave [3] in blue as completed.  Yet, it does leave me with some questions as we did come about 23 points shy of the ideal target of the 1.382 extension.  Yet, for now, I am going with wave [3] in blue being completed.  This means that I would expect a very difficult trading environment to begin and take us down towards the 2788SPX region for wave [4], as outlined yesterday. 

However, that pesky alternative green count is still hanging around.  Unfortunately, until we actually complete a full 5-wave structure one way or the other towards those higher targets, we are forced to deal with the complexity of the market as it currently presents.  So, we have to keep our eyes open for the potential of the green count taking us to 3234SPX sooner rather than later.

There are two ways it can do so.  First, we can see a pullback towards the 2875-2940SPX region for the green alt [b], as highlighted on my 5-minute chart.  However, there is an alternative count which Zac and Garrett have been following, which I am highlighting in yellow on my 5-minute chart.  So, let’s discuss how we approach the market.

As long as we remain below the premarket high struck in the 3040SPX region, then I am following the blue count as my primary.  And, I will continue to do so until the market either provides us with a CLEAR 5-wave rally structure which would indicate that the [c] wave higher may have begun, or we break out over the pre-market sooner rather than later (the yellow potential).

But, since we have not struck the 3063SPX ideal target, I will need to see a clear move through that region to suggest we are on our way to 3150SPX first, and then on our way to 3234SPX in a more direct manner, pursuant to the yellow count.

So, in summary, as long as we remain below today’s premarket high, the door has opened to retrace in a corrective wave [4] pullback towards the 2788SPX region.  However, if the market should provide indications otherwise, as outlined above, then we have to prepare to head to 3234SPX earlier than I currently expect.

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Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net.