Competing Patterns - Market Analysis for Mar 30th, 2026

I always find it a challenge when we have one pattern playing out in the SPX and another in the futures.  As I write this, the futures have struck the support I noted over the weekend at 6360ES, and have seen a large rebound off that low.  However, the SPX pattern seemed incomplete, which is maybe why we are seeing the lower lows in SPX, whereas this may only be a corrective b-wave pullback in ES.  And, that is how I have it analyzed on the various charts.

Of course, this will apply ONLY if the futures can hold their overnight low.  Should that break, as I outlined in the weekend analysis, it will open the door to test he next support region in the 6174SPX region, which, again, is the ideal standard target for the (a) wave.

I have also placed onto the 5-minute SPX chart a proposed path for the (b) wave rally I still expect.   And, I think this is a good time to warn again that, even though I have provided a general path, (b) waves are quite variable in nature.  So much so, that I view attempting to outline a definitive path for a (b) wave as akin to attempting to throw jello for distance.  But, nonetheless, the general path I have proposed is one wherein we see the a-wave of the (b) target the .382 retracement of the (a) wave decline, followed by a b-wave corrective pullback, setting up a c-wave rally back to the .618-.764 retracement of the (a) wave decline.   This is generally the typical path we see, but the machinations within this general path could be quite trying.

So, in order to have more confidence that the (b) wave has likely begun, we will need to see us rally back over the high struck in the futures today, which should then set our sights on the .382 retracement region of the (a) wave decline, which will likely coincide with the top of the declining trend channel on the charts.  For now, that is my expectation as long as we hold over the low struck in the overnight session in the futures.  Below that, and it opens a bigger downside door.