Competing Micro Counts - Market Analysis for Sep 22nd, 2025

With the market moving higher this week as we generally expected from the weekend analysis, we have two competing wave counts into this rally.

First, when we scrub the ES chart, we have seen quite a bit of overlap since the a-wave topped.  So, I am surmising that we have a running triangle for the b-wave, as shown.  This is not a common pattern, but definitely no where near as uncommon as the w-x-y with a y-wave triangle with which I am struggling in gold. But, it seems to make the most sense for the b-wave in the ES.

With the rally today, I can count a potential 5-waves up off that low, assuming we begin to see a corrective pullback imminently.  That could provide us with a 1-2 set up for the c-wave rally.  If this does take shape, then I have to slightly adjust the target box overhead.  You see, until now, I have used the 1.618-1.764 extension of the larger degree i-ii structure for that target.  And, that is the common target for an ending diagonal.  

But, if we get this 1-2 in the c-wave of wave v, then it would project to the 1.764-2.00 extensions of waves i-ii in the larger diagonal.  So, that is why I have slightly adjusted the box higher.  And, of course, should we break today’s pullback low, this would invalidate this potential.

The other competing chart is the SPX.  As you can see, we are approaching the bottom of that target box.  Moreover, the structure can count as completing a 5-wave move in the c-wave already, as the structure is not the same as in ES.   Therefore, the SPX could be pointing to a more impending top being struck.

But, again, just as with the ES, we would need to break down below today’s low to make that a higher likelihood.

So, where does that leave us?  Well, I think it is pretty clear that as long as we are over today’s low, we need to look higher.  But, should today’s low break, it opens the door to a potential top being in place. 

Lastly, I want to let you know that the Jewish religious holiday season is commencing this evening.  Therefore, Mike, Zac and I will be out starting this afternoon until Wednesday night.  Garrett will be managing the room and the live videos, and Ryan will be helping Garrett manage the room and Jason, Levi and Mark will be helping Garrett.   So, please be considerate of their time as we will be shorter staffed during this time.  Thank you for understanding.

I will write the metals update when I return on Wednesday night.