Certainly “Feels” Bullish - Market Analysis for May 13th, 2025

If we look back to the chart I attached below from April 7, the last thing we “felt” was bullish.   Yet, that was the time to be looking to layer into long positions for the rally we expected to the target/resistance box overhead on that chart, which is what I outlined in my analysis at the time.

Today, we are now slightly above that target/resistance box, and I am seeing one article after another declaring that it is time to buy because the bull market is back.  The masses are proclaiming that the "all clear" sign has been given for the market.  Everyone is back to being certain this is bullish again. As for me, cash is now king until we see the nature of the next bigger pullback. So, forgive me if I do not get as excited, as when the market “feels” bullish is the time when we must turn cautious.  

While the market is now slightly over our target/resistance that we set over a month ago, I am still viewing the analysis in the exact same manner in the bigger picture.  Before we can make an assessment as to whether the bull market will continue to 6200+, we need to make an assessment of the next pullback that we see.  And, even if the market does extend a bit higher than I had expected when we were bottoming over a month ago, it does not change the fact that the next pullback will tell us the path forward.

So, for now, patience is going to be the key.  Consider that it is highly unlikely that we are already in the c-wave of v in the blue count.  Therefore, it is a high probability that we will see a larger pullback even in the more bullish count presented in blue.  And, until we see that pullback, you will likely need to exhibit just a bit more patience.

The first signal that a top is in place is a break-down below 5786SPX, with follow through below 5578SPX making it likely that we are in the larger pullback which will determine our next move in the SPX. Also, take note that the MACD on the daily chart has now fully reset and should be able to support any type of the decline the market next provides to us.  But, again, the nature of that decline will be out guide as to how we look at the rest of 2025 and even beyond.