Bulls Still Holding On

With the test of the 3880SPX support, the bulls are still holding support for wave iv of 1.

As I have been highlighting of late, the 3880SPX support is what should hold if the market is going to attempt to complete wave v of 1, as shown on my 5-minute SPX chart.  Most specifically, if today’s low completed the wave iv of 1, then we need to rally back up towards yesterday’s high to complete a 5-wave structure for wave [i] of v of 1.  Anything less will have me considering our alternatives.

Most specifically, the alternatives I would have to consider is that we topped in an unusual manner which I have labeled as blue wave 1.  This is clearly not my preference at this time, as there are many issues with it.  But, should we break down below 3880SPX before we confirm wave v of 1 is in progress, then 3775-3840SPX is our support for wave 2, which represents the .618-.382 retracement of what would then be wave 1, again, presented in blue.

As long as the market remains over 3775SPX, I am still looking forward to setting up waves i and ii of wave 3 before I turn very aggressive on the long side for wave 3 of [3].   But, should the market break below that region, then I have to begin to assume that wave [2] has not yet completed, which has been our alternative for some time.  Again, this is not anywhere near my preference at this point in time, but I have to provide objective goalposts as to when probabilities will have shifted in my opinion.

For now, my preference remains for a wave v of 1 taking us to the target box overhead.  Should we see a sustained break below 3880SPX, then I will consider the alternatives noted above.

Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net.