Bulls Being Pushed

As I have been reiterating for some time, as long as we remain over 2330SPX, I have to view this pullback as a (b) wave within the larger green b-wave structure.  While the market is continually pushing lower in an overlapping fashion, and pushing the bulls backs against the wall in this structure, we still have no sustained break below support.

The current structure in green still makes the most sense to me, as I would prefer to see a solid rally to generate the bullishness needed to set up a strong c-wave down to scare most out of the market before we begin our expected rally to 2500SPX.

Of course, as I mentioned as my alternative count, if we see a sustained break down below 2330SPX, then I have to consider the alternative count more seriously.  But, since a c-wave down “should” be an impulsive structure, this one is not even close to a standard impulsive structure, which is one of the reasons it is my alternative count, along with several other reasons. 

In fact, this is truly acting as a b-wave would, with the potential for us bottoming in an ending diagonal for the micro c-wave within that (b) wave.  What will signal that a (c) wave has begun is a strong reversal taking us back to the 2360SPX region, which I would count as wave 1 in the (c) wave of the green b-wave.  I have just added it to the chart, so you can picture what I would want to see to give us a strong indication that the (c) wave is in progress.  But, we need to break out over today’s high in a strongly impulsive fashion to even begin that confirmation.  Until we are able to break over today’s high in impulsive fashion, pressure will still remain down.

Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net.