Bulls Are Seemingly Back In Control
By
Avi Gilburt
After the market moved through the 7654SPX level, it was a strong sign that the bulls have taken back control. And, despite all the misgivings I have had with the yellow count, it seems I am forced to adopt a VERY shallow 2nd wave retracement once again.
Currently, the bulls have control as long as they hold over the micro pivot I have outlined on the 5-minute SPX chart – which is now the wave iv of (iii) support, which coincides with the wave iv of (iii) support box I have noted on the 15-minute ES chart.
Of course, should price break down below those support boxes – especially if it does so impulsively, then we will move back into the (b) wave high top, with the expectation for a (c) wave decline towards the 7100-7200SPX region. But, for now, the bulls seem to have the ball and they are going to have to fumble with a break down of those support boxes for the bears to be able to take control in the near term.
I am putting this update out earlier than normal so you will have these support boxes in front of you as I assume a wave iv can begin at any point now.
Again, I want to stress that we have seen no signal that a major top has been struck. Therefore, the path north of 9000SPX seems to be the path the larger degree (c) wave in the 5th wave is going to take. And, since the .618 extension of waves 1-2 is in the same region as the 2.00 extension of waves (i)(ii) of wave i of 3 (the 8000SPX region, which can be seen on the 60-minute SPX chart), this is where I am looking for this near term rally to terminate for wave i of 3, with the expectation of a wave ii pullback thereafter. Once wave ii completes and we then rally back over the high of wave i, this makes the path north of 9000SPX a very high probability.
