Bigger Picture Points - Market Analysis for Aug 17th, 2023

Sorry folks, I fell asleep early yesterday, and missed the spike down.  In the meantime, nothing much has really changed in the analysis other than people are now "feeling" bearish after yesterday's move.  But, the analysis does not change.

At this point in time, the pivot is going to be of UTMOST importance in defining this as a corrective decline (yellow) or an impulsive decline (green).  The top of our pivot is the 4427SPX region.  And, as long as the next bounce remains below 4427SPX, then pressure will remain down. 

But, in my humble opinion, I think the bigger test will come after the next (iv)(v).  Should the market complete that in the coming days, then the pivot will likely be moved down to the 4407-4419SPX region.. 

A few more points I would like to make at this time.  Simply because we have hit the minimum target for wave (iii) does not mean it cannot extend lower tomorrow.  In fact, it would almost fit the green count better if we see more of an extension, which would make the potential for the deeper (iv)(v) to take us to the ideal target for wave iii in the 4297SPX region. 

Next, I want to stress that if the market should break through the pivot at ANY point in time from here on, then it would raise the probability of the yellow count.  The reason I say that is something I have been trying to point out for some time even before we began this decline.  I am seeking a CLEAR 5-wave decline based upon our Fibonacci Pinball structure to make it a high probability that we will indeed follow the green count.  And, any deviation from our standard structure is an warning that we will not follow through in the green count at this time.  So, PLEASE maintain an open mind as we continue to follow this imperative structure which has so much meaning as to how we continue for the rest of 2023 and potentially well beyond.

Lastly, I want to point out that the positive divergence in the 60-minute MACD has been broken, which does support the perspective of us seeing lower over the coming week or two . . for at least one more (iv)(v).  But, remember, price is the most important factor, and this is simply an supporting/ancillary factor.  And, it does suggest that we will likely see at least the next (iv)(v).   

Please continue focusing on what is most important to our analysis.  We still need the larger degree 5-wave decline to solidify a very bearish outcome over the next year.  Should we move outside of the standard parameters for that pattern, then we will begin to shift towards the yellow count pointing to 4800SPX.  

Avi Gilburt is founder of