Bears Got One More Shot

When we use our Fibonacci Pinball structure, we need to have a solid i-ii in place in order to project waves iii, iv and v rather accurately therefrom.  So, when it is not 100% clear as to where the i-ii reside, we have to have a bit more patience.

As it stands now, I can view wave i off the recent lows as completed.  The question I am still grappling with is if wave ii is done.  As you can see from the 5-minute ES chart, my primary count remains looking for a c-wave down to complete wave ii in green.   But, please take note of the more accelerated impulsive count in white, which suggests we have a i-ii, [i][ii] already in place.  And, right now, I think the difference centers around whether we hold below today’s high in ES or not.

As long as we remain below today’s high, then I still think w can see a c-wave down into our support box below on the ES chart.  However, if we break out over today’s high, it would open the door to us already being in wave iii of wave 1, which ultimately should complete all 5 waves up north of the 4750SPX region.

Currently the pivot in the more immediate bullish white count is in the 4450-4500ES region.  That means that once we exceed the 4500ES region, then 4450ES becomes our support, with our next target being the 4750 region, as the 1.618 extension of waves i-ii, and the common target for wave iii.  Should we get to that target, then the 4570ES region will become our wave iv support on that pullback.  But, for now, I am getting a bit ahead of myself.

For now, today’s high remains rather important.  As long as we hold below it, it is reasonable to look for a c-wave down into our support box between 4170-4250ES.  The depth of that drop will depend on how extended the 3^rd wave of the c-wave takes us.  But, please respect the fact that this is still a bull market, wherein surprises often come to the upside.  And, if we break out directly over today’s high, then the pivot overhead will be our next milestone and test before we head back up to 4750+.