Bears Are Trying - Market Analysis for Aug 31st, 2026

With the lower low we saw today, the bears are certainly trying their best. You see, this now looks like a really nice 5-wave decline, which would tip the scales towards this being wave i of 3 down in the more bearish (c) wave path.

In looking at the bullish side, in order this to retain its wave ii status, it would mean that the SPX had an a-b-c pullback, wherein the c-wave was equal to .618 the size of the a-wave. This is not a common ratio we see within a-b-c structures. It is much more common in a 5-wave structure.

Moreover, in order to even get the bullish wave count in the futures, we would need to apply a w-x-y structure, which is quite complex and not as common either. So, needless to say, the lower low today is beginning to shift probabilities.

So, what should we be looking for in the coming days?

Well, in order for the bulls to salvage their wave count, we will need to see a CLEAR 5-wave rally structure begin quite imminently to take us back towards the high for wave (1) of iii. Should we see that take shape in the coming days, you can buy into a corrective wave (2) pullback for a trade, with the target pointing us to the 7900SPX region for wave (v) and the target box overhead on the 5-minute SPX chart.

However, with the bears trying to take charge here, anything shy of a 5-wave rally is a very strong warning that the market is going to attempt a break down below last week’s low, which will open that trap door down to the 7300SPX region next.