As Long As The Pivot Holds, Look Up

There really is not much for me to add to our general update over what I outlined yesterday.  

While I am unsure as to whether wave [3] on the ES chart ended yesterday, or at today’s high, the result is still the same:  As long as we hold our pivot as support, the market is likely going to target the next higher box on the ES chart.

But, here comes our warning again.  Even if we do get that rally higher to that next target, we still can be just completing the 5th wave of the yellow wave [1] count.  And, if we are, then the market will not make it a secret.   You see, if this really is an ending diagonal to complete a 5th wave in wave [1] in yellow, when completed, diagonals see very strong reversals.  Moreover, the reversal often targets the origination point of the diagonal in rapid fashion, which, in our case, would be the 3500SPX region.

So, at any point in time now, if we see the market break our support levels, we it would be reasonable toe expect the market to drop in dramatic fashion if we are indeed completing an ending diagonal.

Yet, we must always remember that this is a long term bull market, and I am still expecting to rally over 4000 as we move into 2021.  Moreover, as long as the market continues to pullback correctively and hold over the support levels we continue to outline and modify as we move higher, the bulls remain in control and can still take us up in a more direct fashion, as outlined in green, even though I have my doubts about the wave [2]. 

Ultimately, it may come down to us rallying up to the next target, and then seeing the market’s reaction.  If we see a strong reversal that breaks support, well, then we have a strong signal that we could be heading down to the 3500SPX region in rapid fashion.   However, if we strike our next target, and pullback correctively therefrom for a green wave [iv], well, that would be a strong indication that the market is going to make a run at 3922 next in the green count.

So, while it has taken us a month and a half since we saw that day long “pullback” in early November, it should not be much longer before the market finally tells us if wave [2] has indeed completed. 

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Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net.