Are We Ready For Another Breakout?

With the action we have seen thus far, it has certainly made it much more likely that wave [4] has completed.  While we cannot be certain until we complete all of wave 1, the probabilities seem to be in our favor based upon the current action.

But, the drop seen yesterday has certainly clouded the smaller degree structure.  In the bigger count, we are in wave iii off the recent low.   But, where the [i][ii] reside within the structure is still not clear to me, mostly because of the fact that I am struggling to account for the drop seen yesterday.  

If the market is able to break out through the pivot on the 60-minute chart, then it is clear that we are in wave [iii] of iii.  But, until that happens, the drop seen yesterday has opened the door that we could be in a bigger leading diagonal for wave [i], as I am showing on the 5-minute SPX chart.

But leads me to the last major test I am seeing.  As you can see from the 60-minute chart, I have added an alt-iv in blue.  Again, I do not see this as a high probability structure.  But, this is where our Fibonacci Pinball comes in very handy.  If we rally up to the 1.00 extension target for wave [iii], and then break down below the pivot thereafter, that would increase the probability for blue yet again.  But, as long as we pullback correctively into the pivot and hold the pivot, and then begin another impulsive rally off that pivot, we remain solidly in the green count.

So, while the market is doing what it should be doing to keep us moving further and further away from our wave [4] low, there is still one more main test we will have to endure before we can be even more certain that wave [4] is indeed in the rearview mirror.   But, remember, the reason we still question it is because we did not have a standard completion to a c-wave.   So, it still leaves that question open until we are able to exceed the 1.00 extension off the low, which represents a traditional a=c corrective rally off a low.  

For now, I still lean bullish in the green count, and will remain so until I see clear and convincing evidence to the contrary.  After all, this is still a bull market with much higher levels to attain.

Avi Gilburt is founder of