Another Step Towards Wave (2)

The market just took another step towards the bigger wave (2) towards at least the 3650 region.  But, it does not mean it will be a direct move.

The drop overnight really looks like a 3 wave drop, but it seems a bit too deep to be wave 2 of (3).  So, while I have now made that my yellow alternative count it will again become the primary if we take out the pivot.  So, it is still well within the potential counts we are tracking, but I just think that the wave (2) count has taken the step forward over the more immediately bullish one. But, as you can see, there are two paths for wave (2).

The drop we have seen overnight looks like a 3-wave drop, so it can be the b-wave within a bigger (b) wave, ,as presented in purple. 

So, again, it is still within reasonable probabilities that we break out in wave 3 from here . . . but I think the probabilities have now risen that wave (2) is not over.  But, there are still two paths that wave (2) can take, as shown in green and purple on my chart. 

Over 3860ES, and I move back into wave iii of 3.

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Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net.