Another 5 Waves - Market Analysis for May 29th, 2025

With the spike overnight, the market has taken out the high struck yesterday, which made it clear that this 5-wave structure had not yet completed.  So, my view is that the overnight high completed the 5-wave rally off the wave 4 low on May 23^rd, and that we have potentially and finally begun that pullback I have wanted to see.

Yet, while we clearly are very extended to the upside and we have a very full count, what we do not have is confirmation that the high for this rally is likely in place.  We will need to break down below the wave 4 low (5767SPX) to confirm that the bigger pullback I still expect is in progress.   And, until that happens, we cannot assess what type of pullback we are seeing.  

In fact, when you look at the 60-minute chart, you will see that this decline is barely even visible on that chart.  So, we should not be assigning a high probability yet that this rally has finally concluded.  But, once we do see a break down below 57567SPX, we can then assess the nature of that pullback and make determinations regarding our expectation for the rest of the year and beyond.  And, I mean assigning the structure to either the red or blue wave counts.