If you have not read the update I posted this morning, I strongly urge you to read it, as I have already gotten questions from those who have not read it.
In the meantime, this afternoon’s update is going to focus a bit more on the micro structure. As I noted in an intra-day alert, upper support is now at 3360SPX. And as long as we remain over that support, our next upside target is 3440SPX.
Now, we clearly have enough waves in place to consider this entire uptrend off the March lows as completed, and we clearly have enough waves in place to consider the 5th wave rally off the June low as completed as well. But, as I have been harping over and over again for months, do not try to get in front of a pullback, and let the market at least break below 3360SPX to provide us an initial indication that the uptrend in wave [i] off the March low has completed.
At this point in time, a break of 3360SPX would provide us with an initial signal that the market has finally completed all of wave [i] off the March low, with follow through below 3240SPX making it likely that a multi-month wave [ii] pullback is in progress.
In the meantime, I want to reiterate that as long as we remain over 3360SPX, the next upside target is in the 3440SPX region. But, please try to focus more on the forest at this time rather than the leaves. It is likely that the market will be targeting 5000+ over the coming years, but I still think we need a bigger pullback before we are ready for the next phase of the rally towards that long term target.