When is a Correction Done?
I got the question in another post regarding how do we know a correction is done? I personally do not actually operate on certainty in markets. I believe the market doesn't offer that. However, I have learned to use Elliott Wave to judge a correction and make bottoms tradeable. and so want to give you my process. I consider the process a game of 'increasing probabilities'. As we progress through these numbers, we increase in likelihood the correction is done. Until true breakout, you can only say 'likely bottomed'. But that's OK. If you learn to position in probabilities and manage risk, we can make a nice return over time. With cryptos we can make a crazy ass return. So, here are my steps.
1) For the Knife Catch. Completed EW pattern down with key structural fib pertaining to the pattern whether it is a triangle, Diagonal, flat, expanded flat, whatever. And, ideally you want to be close in vicinity to a key fib form higher degree. For example you'd like to be near the .382 or .618 (LOG FIBS!!) of the preceeding wave 1 if you are tracking a wave 2. You ideally see technical divergence. on the MACD and RSI. In sharp WXY patterns you'll see less, and in diagonals you'll see several timeframes of divergence. This is worth seeding a position. But you have a bit of air below you.
2) Next look for an impulse (5waves) that overcomes the proceeding 4 of C or or 4 of C of Y, then holds a corrective retrace over the .618 or .764. For me this is worth a hail mary. That's just how I trade. I don't buy breakouts unless scalping mini moves. I get positioned before so I'm surfing the breakout FOMO. Stops start at the low but then are moved to just below .764 of the move off the lows. Then you can move stops according to my 'timeframe video' on this site and on youtube.
3) Judge whether a 'fake rally: 5up over the .618 of the correction (from peak to trough) but under breakout is ideal. This is the B wave test. Then if you have a corrective retrace you have the highest probability of breakout. Not confirmation but rarely do they fail. You have to worry if you don't see 5up between the .618 or breakout. That's a sign of a B wave top. Our ATH in EOS is a great example and here we are. But often Bitcoin doesn't complete 5up until over the top. It's annoying but does that on ALL TIMEFRAMES.
I have all this in videos one way or another. And, happy to talk about it in this week's webinar as well.