Whack A Mole or Bull Run

If you have followed my take on the market, Bitcoin aside, I've been expecting a bull run into the end of this year. And IF we get it, it probably goes into early next year. I have believed this because, we have quite a few charts that have traced out very clear 4th waves on their long term charts. Some as shallow triangles. These triangles, some of which occurred after VERY extended third waves into June suggest one final wave up, before a bear market, probably at least 3-6 months long, if not more. These very high probability charts include: Ether, Ether Classic, Ripple, Stratis, Lisk, Litecoin, Shift, Rise, OMG, and NEO. Im sure I'm missing quite a few. Other charts like Monero and Dash are ending diagonals that do not look complete. 

But how will we get there?

As you have hopefully seen, I've been playing a game Whack O Mole metaphorically taking profit on coins that pop. (referring to that old 80's arcade game where you hammer the heads of surfacing moles). The reason for this is to cushion the portfolio with short term profit taking before we enter the higher degree / probability setups that take us higher. We haven't seen those yet. So, the question on my mind is not whether they come, but will they come in unison, or will some lag. Honestly, I hope some lag. That gives me advantage in my ability to rotate. If they all come together, I'll just dig in and ride the impulse. When we enter this phase you'll see very few trade signals. Just the call to HODL. (hold in crypto slang). 

Is there a Bearish Case?

For these high probability charts, with a lot of confluence from multiple projections, the bear case is really a deeper 4th wave right now. These triangles I'm speaking of have been very very shallow. For example Ether could have easily gone to $115, but instead so far bottomed at $177. Stratis would be comfortable at $1.10, but has bottomed at $2.08 roughly. This is bullish. We can be nervous about going lower, and need to be aware of the possibility. But the fact that some of these charts have avoided lower supports like a plague. This should be viewed as bullish, so far. Believe me, I will call out a setup for lower if I see it. But so far, I have experienced too many charts thwarting my calls for lower: Ether, Stratis, Ether Classic, Litecoin, Neo, and OMG all had setups for lower BUT FAILED. 

Meanwhile, in the room, I personally, speaking honestly, struggle with the emotion. But I should expect it. Fourth waves are notoriously choppy, and grind the sentiment down to the point where folks metaphorically want to jump off a cliff. ...And then the market runs. We all know from experience that the market makes its gains in much less time than it corrects. Impulses are just quicker and they leave the station with no one on board. Am I making a call for you to risk all because the big one is coming...no NOT AT ALL. But i am asking that you look at the market for what it is. No calls for manipulation, no view that it is rigged. Honestly, those are the words of a participants getting duped by sentiment so they don't participate when the run starts. They grow fatigued, and tired, and loose an objective mind. That said, you should only risk what you are comfortable risking that just helps better decision making.  

So, will we run together or play Whack O mole? I don't know. But if we stand on the cusp of this great run, we'll see the higher probability setups come then we have had so far. Currently the portfolios are mostly cash. I will start to increase that exposure as setups become clear. This is defined by a 5 up that takes out key resistance levels, then a 3 wave pull back. Litecoin, Ether Classic, Dash, all ran ahead by taking out key levels but they are not yet in the retrace where we load the boat just yet. The rest are stirring around on the ground. Maybe we get the amazing gift of being able to play the early setups and rotate to the laggers. Or maybe those that run ahead wait for the 'slow moles' to catch up. Let's see... 

Note again that most of this is not about small caps. We have a few strong one's but we have messy charts for the most part except the few mentioned above. I want to do a better job of talking about probability. I thought I had, but I'm going to now double down on it so it is clear. But the higher probability setup in the small caps with diagonals comes later when they get A and B of iii, and then setup for C higher. So, we need to see some pops that then go sideways as shakey b waves. Then we'll look for the C wave setup. Those charts need more patience. 

Ryan Wilday hosts the Cryptocurrency Trading service on ElliottWaveTrader.net.