Market Analysis for Aug 24th, 2019

If you are new to our rogue band of crypto traders, I welcome you. For a little history, I was a member of Avi’s market room, and a couple other services here, starting in 2015. I started posting crypto charts using EW by 2016 in the main room. I had known the theory for 20 years but really learned how to apply it here. In 2017 Avi asked me to start this service and we were up and running in August of that year, giving us a small 5 month run into the top. There are currently about 400+ subscribed here, but you will not hear from most of them. 

What does this service offer?

  1. Any crypto chart request, if I can get the data. Generally that means a 1D chart, sometimes an hourly if I have it. 

  2. Micro counting in Bitcoin and Ethereum

  3. Charts of legitimate blockchain stocks, that is that they tend to move with crypto. (Hive is a blockchain stock, IBM is not, though it uses blockchain.)

  4. I try to sense what major cryptos folks are trading and know the chart well, not necessary micro, but as best I can. Right now that is LTC, EOS, BCH, GBTC

  5. Weekly webinar

  6. Three portfolios: Swing, long term large cap, and long term token (small cap). I am quite cautious on keeping long term portfolios on this site as I no longer think of cryptos as long term holds. The technology is changing fast. I am conscious of needing to transition the last two into something more worthwhile. Discussed here.  The swing portfolio is where I am posting short term trades and very active. I expect to ‘wake up/ transition’ the other two. 

  7. I do offer as much trading education as I can, but note that is not my role here. We have the beginner’s circle where general level EW or trading questions should be asked. In fact, if new to trading, that is a good ‘service’ to look at now and then. 

Keys to success:

  1. Note that Elliott Wave can be somewhat predictive but relying on that devoid of a risk management plan will get you in trouble. This is because EW is probably no better than 60-70% predictive though it generally always pins the market, albeit in a ‘alternate’ count. In other words, there is analyst error in its use and that is the other 30-40%, not the tool itself. But more than that, even if the analyst is wrong, EW, in the way we use it here, pins risk to reward (R:R) down. You can trade with an edge at 30% and get risk to reward 3:1 and still break even. With EW and crypto we often see R:R of 10:1

         I discuss my trading process here, and I like to help folks learn it. It isn’t all I do but it is the ‘safe’ approach.

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V7kBP39055Q&t=1424s

      2. Note risk is yours. I am only an analyst, and perhaps a teacher when I can. You’ll need to develop your  own tradeplan around your financial situation, and emotional wherewithal. Note the market doesn’t want to give you money. You have to work for it. I am here to offer some tools, analysis.            Many members here have learned a style of trading, very successfully using my analysis. Some different from how I’d do that. Focus on that journey. 

Note I get much excitement with the success of members, but I can’t take much more than an ounce of credit as the member must do it. Some struggle and leave, but I know this all works as many retired after a few short months in 2017. But it take time. 

Key Readings:

Please read the articles posted in ‘pinned posts’. That can be found here: 

https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/members/atchat/?favorites=1&dayslimit=-1&productId=19&u%5B%5D=19303

Of particular importance see my article on Mooncounts. And, read the three part series ‘Long Term Crypto Challenge’. They will also be key to your success. 

Ground Rules:

Please don’t leave requests for charts on the board. Fishing for requests in replies is a nightmare. And, note as staff I have the whole site open most of the time. Sometimes I flip to crypto only, but usually on weekends only. If you want to be seen type it in ‘request symbol update’ at the top left corner. 

With respect to PMs to me, they are generally discouraged. I will shut down questions on charts in PM generally, as they just leave to answer you, and then someone else that may have the same question. Put your questions where they benefit all- on the board. 

Use PMs for personal problems with members or me if handled professionally. Airing grievances on the board will be deemed unprofessional, deleted, and may result in your account on hiatus. That is straight from the user rules you signed up for. 

In my room, I delete political posts that start to ‘runaway’, no matter which side of the aisle they come from. I tend to not worry about political humor. After all, we all need to lighten up a bit, and making fun of our leaders is a great past time. But unfortunately in today’s society, it has evolved into a dark culture, so my finger is not far from the delete trigger.




 

Ryan Wilday hosts the Cryptocurrency Trading service on ElliottWaveTrader.net.