WELCOME (the reprise)

Welcome

I haven't updated this post in a bit, and I know we've had an influx of new people so thought I'd update this. Welcome aboard and be sure to ask if questions. 

If you are new to our rogue band of crypto traders, I welcome you. For a little history, I was a member of Avi’s market room, and a couple other services here, starting in 2015. I started posting crypto charts using EW by 2016 in the main room. I had known the theory for 20 years but really learned how to apply it here. In 2017 Avi asked me to start this service and we were up and running in August of that year, giving us a small 5 month run into the top. There are currently about 500+ subscribed here, but you will not hear from most of them. 

What does this service offer?

1. Any crypto chart request, if I can get the data. Generally that means a 1D chart, sometimes an hourly if I have it. 

2. Micro counting in GBTC, Bitcoin and Ethereum. Why just micro count these? Note it is just plain impossible to have an intimate edge on every chart. I do you a dis-service rendering a strong view on a micro chart for which I do not trade regularly. I sometimes see an edge on others but I cannot commit to this intimacy. b. Bitcoin is the only crypto with wide institutional acceptance and so for the time being. This gives it liquidty and makes EW analysis more reliable. Ether is close. I focus here because we can expect them to be around a long time, while any of the thousands of alts, can one day be delisted. 

3. Charts of legitimate blockchain stocks, that is that they tend to move with crypto. (Hive is a blockchain stock, IBM is not, though it uses blockchain.)

4. I try to sense what major cryptos folks are trading and know the chart well, not necessary micro, but as best I can. Right now that is LTC, EOS, BCH, GBTC

5. Weekly webinar, right now on Saturday's at 11:30 EST. I record it and post roughly 2 hours after with charts. 

6. A Swing Signal portfolio. We had long term portfolios but they have been retired. I consider the 2017 experiment in creating a long term portfolio a failed experiment. Discussed here.  The swing portfolio is where I am posting short term trades and very active. From time to time, I post quick scalps in the main room without a notification. This is difficult to manage in the portfolios. At any time I'm taking a trade, I have to make a judgement whether it is high probability for a multi-day swing which is my bar for going in the portfolio. You will find this is inconsistent and I don't have a way to be perfect here. Some scalps run longer than a day. Some swings end up stopping out early. This means if you are going by the swing portfolio you are not getting a full view of my performance. And, my core actions do not land there, they are posted. That's because the swing portfolio isn't designed for my method. 

7. I do offer as much trading education as I can, but note that is not my role here. We have the beginner’s circle where general level EW or trading questions should be asked. In fact, if new to trading, that is a good ‘service’ to look at now and then. 

8. Lastly, I am making a push in this service toward a solid addition of quantitative signals and systematic trades discussed below. This will one day inhabit a portfolio. 

Keys to success:

1. Note that Elliott Wave can be somewhat predictive but relying on that devoid of a risk management plan will get you in trouble. This is because EW is probably no better than 60-70% predictive though it generally always pins the market, albeit in a ‘alternate’ count. In other words, there is analyst error in its use and that is the other 30-40%, not the tool itself. But more than that, even if the analyst is wrong, EW, in the way we use it here, pins risk to reward (R:R) down. You can trade with an edge at 30% and get risk to reward 3:1 and still break even. With EW and crypto we often see R:R of 10:1

         I discuss my trading process here, and I like to help folks learn it. It isn’t all I do but it is the ‘safe’ approach.

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V7kBP39055Q&t=1424s

      2. Note risk is yours. I am only an analyst, and perhaps a teacher when I can. You’ll need to develop your  own tradeplan around your financial situation, and emotional wherewithal. Note the market doesn’t want to give you money. You have to work for it. I am here to offer some tools, analysis.            Many members here have learned a style of trading, very successfully using my analysis. Some different from how I’d do that. Focus on that journey. 

Note I get much excitement with the success of members, but I can’t take much more than an ounce of credit as the member must do it. Some struggle and leave, but I know this all works as many retired after a few short months in 2017. But it take time. 

Key Readings:

Please read the articles posted in ‘pinned posts’. That can be found here: 

https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/members/atchat/?favorites=1&dayslimit=-1&productId=19&u%5B%5D=19303

Of particular importance see my article on Mooncounts. And, read the three part series ‘Long Term Crypto Challenge’. They will also be key to your success. 

Ground Rules:

Please don’t leave requests for charts on the board. Fishing for requests in replies is a nightmare. And, note as staff I have the whole site open most of the time. Sometimes I flip to crypto only, but usually on weekends only. If you want to be seen type it in ‘request symbol update’ at the top left corner. 

With respect to PMs to me, they are generally discouraged. I will shut down questions on charts in PM generally, as they just leave to answer you, and then someone else that may have the same question. Put your questions where they benefit all- on the board. 

Use PMs for personal problems with members or me if handled professionally. Airing grievances on the board will be deemed unprofessional, deleted, and may result in your account on hiatus. That is straight from the user rules you signed up for. 

Any unprofessional DMs at my discretion will posted for ridicule by other members, without your name. Speak wisely. 

In my room, I delete political posts that start to ‘runaway’, no matter which side of the aisle they come from. I tend to not worry about political humor. After all, we all need to lighten up a bit, and making fun of our leaders is a great past time. But unfortunately in today’s society, it has evolved into a dark culture, so my finger is not far from the delete trigger.

The Quant Push

I have been working with friends' in the coding world to develop systematic trading signals  and 'Bots'. This is an ongoing project and slow. But we are trialing two signals in the service: GBTCMomentum or Momo, and BTC Core'. I won't detail them here but they are designed to be slow signals to balance the bulk of your portfolio. Both tend to catch the skew in trends and outperform buy and hold in backtests. We need to see if the backtests play out in the future and so they are on trial. To get caught up on these developments, I suggest using the tags GBTCMomo, and BTCCore and scroll down to the introductory posts to catch up. A value of these systems is they will get rid of my intuition on the swing trades, which lead to some trades landing in the portfolio tables and others not. In this regard they will be binary. It will also simplify those signal charts. But before we get there we need to see how the trial works out. So far I am pleased.