Using EW - Market Analysis for Nov 29th, 2018

So, this post is not to pick on anyone, but I just got a long PM about how EW is not useful.

To be honest, this is difficult for me to hear as EW put me in short since June consistently. And, I was very short at the November 13 breakdown. It just extended more than I expected is all. That happens. I was one of the few ardent bears at that point, I am no longer an ardent bear. Calling for one more nano low is hardly bearish in my view. 

But the issue is there were some misunderstandings. As I have often said, trading is trading, and  analysis is analysis. The two are comrades, but not the same. Just because I expect one more low doesn't not mean that short is a good idea here. Shorting here, IMO is best as a hedge or not at all. Per JAppel and my posts, long is the higher R:R here, it is just still not great probability wise,, but to me the better choices here are long or wait. It may sound like I'm speaking out of two sides of my mouth, but I'm not. I'm just wearing two hats: analysts and trader. And, I have been posting long trades and taking them. Arguably early, but that's why I said they were small. I knew the risk.  It is still catching a knife but short simply has no reward in it here. If we break $3000 that will change but I won't chase it. I'll wait for an entry., in the form of a retrace back up to enter short. The break of support is not where you trade, it is a 'signal bias'. That's the big difference. See the potential paths to trade on my chart with Red being down, and white up. I don't see the first red arrow as likely as we have been consolidating correctively but if we change one might choose to hedge  their long at a break of support. But for long, we are also at a bad spot. The R:R is low. So, I wait I have been putting a little bit of hedging on up here just to keep my PnL smooth. We may blast off in the direct white arrow, but I see it as high probability. The best long path is to wait for at leas the deep pullback on the right. That would be a wave 2 and setup a blast off. Also, if we break down, you'd focus on adding more to longs. If you are playing down here in short term or long term ideally you've saved some cash to manage the probabilities. If we get OML look at it as a GREAT LOW COST entry, not a time to short a breakdown YET. 

IF YOU LOOK AT EW NOT AS ONLY DIRECTIONAL BUT WHERE THE R;R PLAYS ARE, you're view of it, if currently bad, will change, particularly as you turn it into profit. 

I plan to cover this more on Saturday. I know this is the hard work. But I cannot do it for you. I can do my best to teach it, but once you grasp it you will suddenly go OOOOOHHHH!. NOW I GET IT!!!.