Tactical Reminder - Market Analysis for Oct 16th, 2019

If you are stalking the 'big trade' as I am, I want to again remind you of my basic tactics using EW. This is outlined in my video here

Note again the grey triangle at the bottom, referring to the larger and lower one. The width of the triangle represents relative position size. The level at which I consider the 2019 bull run over is $4350ish. So, that is currently the stop while we have no reversal pattern. If catching the knife you have to be cognizant of the stop. I recommend not positioning heavy enough to lose more than 1% of your holdings at $4350. That is hard for most to do. However, once we have a reversal, we'll have a tighter stop to work with. An example would be a five wave move along the red line, then pullback in green, forming a new smaller triangle that goes down to the .764 retrace of the red arrow. Note sometimes the initial move can start small. Sometimes it can swallow much of our corrective waves since June. We don't know yet. Honestly, I hope it builds small as that will give me time to build the position safely, before it explodes, provided it explodes, through $14K. 

If you recall, I have shown more 4's and 5's on my chart until further analysis led me to remove. But honestly, I am unsure if that is right, as we have such a mess in Bitcoin before the third of C down. So, we need to give room for lower if the first move fails so, be sure to keep your stop. I'm going to be posting entries in swing trades, but you need to manage your risk in position sizing. Again, most novice traders think about what they can make before thinking about what they can lose. I do both, and I use EW to calculate the R:R (Risk to Stop vs. Reward at target). 

Be sure to take your time during this phase. Be thoughtful, and don't let FOMO take over. There will be no explosion until we are over $14K. That would be surprising. Yes, the first move may feel explosive, or not, but there will be a pullback regardless so don't go chasing every big candle. 

If you have your own approach G_d's Speed. This is mainly for those that have struggled to form a robust trading approach. AKA Training Wheels. 

XBTUSD - Primary Analysis - Oct-16 1850 PM (30 min)
XBTUSD - Primary Analysis - Oct-16 1850 PM (30 min)
Ryan Wilday hosts the Crypto Waves service on ElliottWaveTrader.net.