Swing Tables Info - Market Analysis for Mar 15th, 2023
Spurred by a DM, for those that are new to the service, I want to do a quick explanation of how I use the swing trade portfolio. First of all, most of the profit from this service is going to be self-generated, unless you want to just trade the swing portfolio. Jason and I have produced videos like this to help how to use our charts. You can do it!.
The swing portfolio by no means encompasses all the trades I am taking. That means that if the swing portfolio had a bad quarter, it doesn't mean we all had a bad quarter. There are other trades one can consider, and the swing portfolio says nothing about how much to risk in your portfolio. I suggest starting small with these trades and understand how they work, track stats, then position to your comfort.
For example, I have grid bots taking dozens of trades per day without me even looking at them. Though when I start one, I tend to say I am starting a new one. I just don't put it in the swing trade portfolio, it would be impossible to manage. Two types of trades from me tend to land there: Options and Algos.
There are four algos:
GBTC Magicbus (GBTC_MB): This is a machine learning-based algo that has been around since 2020 and still going strong. It has grabbed roughly $36 per share while GBTC itself has been down $3 or so during the life of the algo. It has bad quarters but it runs a good marathon. It has MURDERED buy and hold!
BITO Magicbus (BITO_MB): I still view this as experimental use of the Magicbus parameters and it just turned profitable after many months in use. But the reason I am playing with it is BITO options. So, far I am pleased but we need more time with this.
I also intend a magicbus for Bitcoin futures.
Bitcoin Core vs. 2 (BTCCore2). This is a momentum-based algo that is hand designed. It comes with a trailing stop that only applies at UTC 00:00 and I give secondary entries. In backtesting, it outperformed buy and hold but I suggest everyone scales in and out of it as it dips and runs to manage risk. I am looking at a vs. 2A that filters signals based on trends. This was designed to help when EW is murky. It is meant to catch breakouts out of bad bases that EW analysis says are murky, but it can also get eaten up in chop so, scaling is smart. I use it for CME futures.
Ether Core vs 2 (Ether Core 2). BTCCore2 applied to Ether Core with some parameters optimized for the #2 coin.
For Option trades, I usually put a symbol in the swing portfolio like 'MARA_puts' but will call out the expiration and strikes at the trade notification.
Most option trade are designed as lottos. You'll see plenty of big wins and big losses in options. If you were tally the %win those trades may make my entire trading look like a disaster. Not true. Those are tiny trades. And, note if I am shorting options, sometimes I lose more money than the original cost. Often, I am shorting to get assigned. I explain the intent at time of the trade.
Note that algos are not EW based. Many people have tried to filter them by looking at my EW chart. Sometimes that works, and sometimes they miss solid trades. I do not filter them. Even trades I've been very uncomfortable taking, I've been glad with in the end. That's the point of quant signals. Because they are not chart based, the chart symbol in the portfolio is often not attached to anything.
Finally, I typically do a quarterly algo performance review by one month after the quarter ends. So the next ones are coming up by then of April.
Let me know if questions.