Sentiment and the Dead Coin
Back in early 2017, after Ether Classic existed only as a post-fork coin from the Ethereum chain (actually the original chain pre-fork), I told the traders on Elliott Wave Trader that I was seeing a very bullish pattern in the coin. I was paying member, not an analyst at the time. We had the classic 5up and three down we look for using Elliott Wave, that completed in January 2017 in the $2.00's, with more confirmation as price started to breakout a couple months later.
I had taken a lot of flak for that call from a few folks. Afterall, it was a dead coin. That is, it didn't have an active project team at the time. But the market seemed to know something I didn't, and I took the trade. The projection from the setup we had was $7.47, that is the 200% extension of wave 1 in log. This is not what we saw at all. Instead we got a super extending third wave. Where the 5th was supposed to hit $7.47, we didn't see a top of the third until $23.80, and then we see a fourth that last 4+ months before the fifth came to peak in January at $46.96.
What do we learn from this? In my view, sentiment is the only true 'sentient intelligence' in the market and it leaves a signature in price action. Sentiment doesn't care if a coin is 'dead'. It doesn't care if a project is amazing. Sentiment summates the affect of all participants in the market- the lovers, the detractors, the bulls, and the bears. Sentiment even accounts for the insiders. Afterall, they are participants and have a opinion. Sentiment knows 'no pump and dump' just euphoria run amuck. It knows no flush, just bearish extreme. Sentiment is not subjective when you know its structural signatures through Elliott Wave, though it leaves a 'feeling' if you are listening.
Fast forward, and Ether Classic is now in a wave ii in my primary, though it is shallow enough to consider it a higher degree fourth wave in my alt count. This correction though large in percentile terms, is very flat in log proportions to the runup last year. Soon, we expect this to bottom, likely around $7, unless another view of this correction becomes evident in our study of its structure.
We also now know that the ETC team is very active, and while I haven't dove into all their plans, it seems IOT is a main solution set they are pursuing. I'll leave others to more expertly weigh on their project. However, sentiment and Elliott Wave is my 'wheelhouse' and for right now, I'm very bullish.