Lastest from Avi and I:
Since Ralph Nelson Elliott identified that markets were fractal in nature almost 100 years ago, we have been able to use his basic 5-wave structure to assist us in identifying various cycles within a market’s progression and regression. And, of late, we have been applying it to the crypto-currency world.
For those that want delve a bit more deeply into how Elliott Wave works, you can feel free to read the following articles written by Avi Gilburt on Seeking Alpha, which provide a basic understanding of the theory and application to the methodology:
- This Analysis Will Change The Way You Invest Forever - Part 1
- This Analysis Will Change The Way You Invest Forever - Part 2
- This Analysis Will Change The Way You Invest Forever - Part 3
- This Analysis Will Change The Way You Invest Forever - Part 4
- This Analysis Will Change The Way You Invest Forever - Part 5
- This Analysis Will Change The Way You Invest Forever - Part 6
In our articles written since we caught the December bottom in Bitcoin at $3120, we’ve tracked a swing trade using the Elliott Wave Theory. After the initial five wave move off said lows, we were looking for a wave two pullback that would not breach $3320. Price on our chart dropped to within $10 of that support, and held.
This leads us to viewing this swing trade moving into the $7K region if the current structure continues to follow through. From here, $4545 must hold, or we see risk of failure.
Now, for those of you new to the crypto-currency world, Ryan Wilday (whom I strongly suggest you begin to follow by hitting the "follow" button) recently penned a beginners "basics" article on crypto-currency, which you can read here.
In our current micro-structure, after the current rally segment approaches the $6050 region, we’ll expect a pullback/consolidation which should take us sideways to down for more than a week or two, before seeing the completion of this initial rally off the recent lows in the market take us to the $7k region. And, from there, we would be looking for a larger degree corrective pullback.
This is how we see the next few months playing out in the complex, as long as supports continue to be respected on pullbacks on our way to $7k.
In Ryan Wilday's recent public webinar, he explained how important the structure for this initial rally is off the recent lows in order to confirm that a long term bottom has been struck. This will determine if we will see much higher levels later into 2019, or if we will still be mired in a longer term correction in the complex.
And, as they say, so far so good. But, as always, we’ll continue to modify our support at each move higher, taking profits opportunistically along the way. In the bigger perspective, if we can complete this run in the next months to the $7k region, and then see a larger degree corrective pullback, it would provide a strong indication that the remainder of 2019 will be quite bullish.
In conclusion, Bitcoin has largely followed our expectations after the December bottom. While this does not guarantee that 2019 will be bullish, price action is suggesting it will so far. But we’ll continue to track key levels as this potential develops in the coming months.