Revisiting GBTC - Market Analysis for Sep 23rd, 2020

I wanted to circle back on GBTC with the bearish outcome growing. If you followed along, you should be well acquainted with the red B wave top which has been presented on my 6H charts since March. The issue I have with this count now, is that C of red B is shorter than A. That isn't a hard rule break but is lower probability. Further, what happens if BTC holds $5700 in an E wave, or C wave in a triangle and that's all the downside we see? In this case, I like white or orange. White would fit if BTC is in an E wave down as that will bring a breakout later this year. If in C, which is not my preference if BTC has already topped, then orange fits in GBTC's own triangle. All of this makes the case that the long term in GBTC is a large diagonal, because none of these options are valid in a long term impulsive third wave (except red). But the reward in the diagonal is still so immense. 

So, this means two things:

1. We may see a buying opp in GBTC at $7.50 to $6 and I'll be watching for all the classic bottom signs there (Positive divergence, impulsive reversal, and MOMO algo firing.)

2. BTC is the lead here. I need to see what form BTC takes. It's feedback is quicker given the higher liquidity vs. GBTC and overnight action. 

GBTC - BTCTriangleMatch - Sep-23 0753 AM (1 day)
GBTC - BTCTriangleMatch - Sep-23 0753 AM (1 day)
Ryan Wilday hosts the Cryptocurrency Trading service on ElliottWaveTrader.net.