Now that we have a pinning function, I wanted to create this new post for new subscribers:
1) If you are new to trading, starting from 0, I strongly advise not putting much money in this market, if at all. I would not do much more than put a small amount that you don't care about in one or more of our holdings. For those holdings go to Analysts>Ryan> [Pick a Portfolio] which I'll explain below. Trading is hard and you have to learn before you walk. Walk before you run.
2) Everyone is here for a different reason from social to learning to trade, to learning Elliott Wave analysis (EW). If your intent is to follow Elliott Wave counts, I strongly advise, starting a journey:
a. At a minimium, see my webinars in 'about crypto' on the EWT youtube channel, or mine. I'll post key webinars in replies. I painstakingly tried to communicate how to use Elliott wave analysis, and even my own style of communicating it.
b. Start a journey of learning it by first, reading Prechter and Frost's 'The Elliott Wave Principle', then secondly taking in our webinars under help>education. Hands down, the profitable traders I know on this site have a working knowledge of the principle. Some can do it as well as I can.
c. Most of all, understand that trading is probabilities. While we use very OBJECTIVE rules to EW no one else does, thanks to the work Avi has done, there is still room for several interpretations, particularly at market inflections. I do my best to teach how to manage those inflections but part of it is just growing new muscles you don't have. I had to grow them too. Once you understand EW as a tool to project likely outcomes out into the future, and give you some basis to measure objectively whether they are holding true or not, but never with 100%, you realize its power. It also mixes well with some other trading systems, revealing things other systems can't. Everyone has their favorite. I do as well.
d. Because I am serving an audience with varying skills, and trading multiple timeframes, it is best to take it slow and figure out how the service can work for you. Too many jump in when we are running hot and get disturbed when our record turns. Or, maybe comes in when we, the EWT analsyst are not on fire, and brush it off. I recommend taking it slow to figure out how to manage dry and hot times that every trader has.
I strongly recommend my webinar on timeframes and profit taking to understand a hint of how to manage probability.
First it is important to understand that my trade calls are analysis, not recommendations. You'll have to figure out if they are right for you. But here are some general principles.
These are augmented positions and are more often stopped out more often than long term portfolios. Note they are allocated in 1/4,1/2,3/4, and full, which is for you to interpret. They express my take of probability and risk. Supports are hard stops where the analysis they are based on is in valid. But I leave how you want to treat the in your trading. I typically, if I am able, take this trade with an increased position over long term allocation or add margin.
I am currently trialing an algo mixed with my EW analysis to imrpove performance. It has not been great since December.
Long Term (Token or small cap, and Large Cap).
Generally, the Small cap portfolio is very volatile. It posted a 200% return from August to December, and gave half back, last I calculated. It is likely a bit more since I calculated unrealized gain. This means only small amount of money should be allocated to this. The large cap portfolio has been a steady gainer, posting 80% roughly from August to December and only giving roughly 10% back, last I checked. This is due to the underlying contained inside. I have 25% allocated to the small caps now personally but I think 10% for most people is better. How much is up to you. Supports are not hard stops, just points where I need to evaluate the latest degree of count. I stop them out when I know longer see the long term analysis as viable. I will take profit at very key swings, like I did in December to January.
Basic Ground Rules beyond User agreements for EWT
1) PMing me is generally not recommended. If I ignore it, don't take it personal. If I answer, it just means I'm not busy. If a question is about a chart, it needs to be on the board so someone else can post or benefit from the answer. I also am not technical support for the crypto world. Post those questions too. This community is amazing at helping everyone. Note that if any time you choose to insult me in PM I will post a copy of your message without your name so people can ridicule it without ridiculing you personally. If you have a conscience, you care. I understand trading is stressful, but better get ahold of yourself. And, yes, I've done it. It isn't an idle threat.
NEVER ask me for a recommendation by PM. I cannot give it LEGALLY. Nor, am I sufficiently educated on your personal situation to make recommendation.
2) I have a strong tendency to delete the following posts: ( a. Politcal posts that start out of hand arguments, any air of insulting remarks (this is a violation of user agreements but I get aggressive and early I think), and any hint of degradation of women or racist comments even if only a hint. PARTICULARLY pictures of scantily clad woman posted in humor are a no no. This is the #1 deletion I've made. These are all mentioned in the user agreements. I've giving you my personal 'allergies' and what makes my deletion trigger live.
3) Please take the time to read my posts if you are are following my analysis. I understand I have 'California slang', and I also am covering a lot in a short time. Sometimes, maybe often, I am not communicative. But I write 30-100 posts a day. I do get tired and sloppy. However, I see too many people scanning, not reading. I need to do better but also ask you your help.
4) One thing you must know about me. I'm dry and gruff, mostly due to time. I'm always straight forward. Don't take it personal. If I really have an issue with you personally, I will PM you.