Probability + Mr. Elliott

Just a reminder-

I've said this over and over, but now that we have new folks, I want to restate.  Elliott Wave is not a prediction tool so much as a way to find high probability points where a market can turn, using structure and fib patterns. When multiple fibs point to the same spot, we call it confluence. As you know, if you've been here a while, I tracked rallies in February, and April that ultimately failed, despite the fact that I called long term support in this zone. I have learned over my three + years at EWT that EW doesn't give us definite messages, so I will track every chance of a rally, so we are not left behind, even if it fails. Afterall, so far we are still in a larger degree bull market that started in Bitcoin, in 2009 at its genesis. And, I will also mark support to discover its failure point. Sometimes, I've heard in the past...'what a bad call'. In fact, I am not making a call really. I am only testing the market, and for myself trying to find those high probability high risk to reward entries. Reversals in a strong downtrend are the hardest to call. All I can is that the zone from $3000-4700 Bitcoin has some confluence. The $120's to $130's in Ether have even stronger confluence. And, we have patterns that can be called complete, but look better with one more low. I can't say anything more than that because the market will not tell me anything more than that.  For me, this is an area to take some risk. And, I have over the last 24 hours, mostly by taking some leveraged position in the big guys. I'll be adding alts later if these long trades play out. How you play and manage the risk to reward is up to you. I'm only here to show where those zones are. Nothing more. But please do be in control of your trades. 

I do think that if this rally, when it becomes more definite fails it will elongate the bear market considerable, per my alt count in bitcoin. Ether will be utterly destroyed long term if that happens. It is actually Ether that convinces me that we can have a bottom here more than Bitcoin. Please be aware of this as you trade. This is a point where, we really need to turn, between here and $3K bitcoin, or this bear market may go on a while longer. 

Ryan Wilday hosts the Cryptocurrency Trading service on ElliottWaveTrader.net.