PSA- For Situational Awareness
Just some reminder as I get some questions that hint that I can communicate better:
1) Given the levels we reached in the bear market, I have opened up more alt counts in our two large cap coins, as my previous count in Ethereum was made highly improbable. My Bitcoin coin has held, but I see it still questionable. See my pinned posts for the three part Long Term Crypto Challenge series for those alt counts.
2) I consider this market a swing traders market until we have 5up over $9K. That would start a breakout up to $65K+. It can happen fast, but more than likely we build a slow base at best, see further lows at worse. Swing trading manages that risk better, which is why I've switched gears. While if I had a ton of capital to just buy and buy and buy lotto alt coins, here, I'd rather buy after a solid 5up. You may be different, and that's great. My strategy is shaping my analysis to a degree because of bandwidth but if you need more do ask. I'm watching so closely because this will set our tone for 2019.
3) Regarding portfolios, I commented here. The skew charts remain up to date until we have a completed swing trade, or break new lows. (tag CryptoLT) There is no need to change them yet. But in my opinion, the current hourly charts will say much about which coins are quality in the next run. I still need more info. But this is the timeframe I'm watching now. Watching for moon counts without a setup is a setup for disappointment.
4) I often get the question- 'what are the best coins' or 'what are the best setups'. Generally I'm seeing higher quality setups in our large cap coins. That is no surprise. If the bottom, large caps usually start first, and liquidity spills into small caps later. But it is hard for me to zero in on the 'best' with 150 charts. I have dedicated myself to knowing the inside and out of Bitcoin and Ethereum. Beyond that, I call swing trades when I can call an entry that is low risk. Beyond that, it is hard to answer what is best. Buying close to support is what is best. Right now, we have good swing in all our large caps. Quality of setup lowers as we move to alts. One of the best I see right now in alts is PIVX, and STRAT is next. TRX is nice as well, but though it started less so. That's just how things change in the early stages. But I'm sure I am leaving some out. And, honestly until this market chooses to rally it may adjust.
I still find the entire alt space to be a big lottery ticket. You win big, or lose all you spend. So, again, I'd rather build my portfolio around the large caps, and spend spillover money with alts, regardless of 'moon count' potential, when my large cap portfolio is playing out. This is my mind set.