GBTC Signal Update - Market Analysis for Apr 2nd, 2020

By popular demand, we'll call the GBTC signal 'GBTC Momentum Up/down'. This reflects what the signal is doing. What I want to state  very clearly that this is not a 'buy/sell signal'. While you would have outperformed buying and holding GBTC many fold in the past, we do not know how it will perform in the future. Further the signal itself is laggy a bit. It is optimized with machine learning but does whipsaw. For example, since tracking live it has been a small loss. So, we still need to see how this performs in the future. Backtests are only one step in algo development. 

I am going to work on a trading plan that mixes a use of the signal with EW. As I stated, you can probably benefit from using the signal as a relative risk signal, keeping positions small when momentum is down, and not running to buy support when down until momentum turns into support. You might still take tranches off in EW targets, because this signal will always fire later when momentum reverses and confirms. You might also wait for a signal to turn positive before adding to support if it is hitting support with momentum down. Those are just ideas and I need to play with it a bit. 

Note also that I will not share the details of the signal. A friend helped out his own time, and preserving the secret sauce allows him to use the signal to his advantage including monetarily as I am using it here to benefit the service. 

Finally, we are working on another signal that may augment, or replace this one, so I am not going have the team here build out tables until a long trial period. 

Current Live trades I've tracked: 

3/19 Momentum On, $7.06

4/1  Momentum Off, $6.85 (-3%)

4/2 Momentum On, $7.20