Fundy Thoughts on Ether

So, I had a request on a comment I made in another post that goes like this: 'Perhaps Ether doesn't make it past wave 2'. This comment is based on the clogged nature of the Ether network and how EOS appears to be 10X in technology. So, just a quick blurp on this because this really was just thinking out loud. 

First, if Ether can't hold $122-133 or very very close we have a warning that ultimately wave iv will cross 1 and the impulse will fail. Breaking that level already puts us beyond our fib pinball guidelines. If that occurs and is not recovered QUICKLY, my view that Ether sees a range of $6900 to $16,400, latter if an extended 5th, is out the window. The most I'd expect is $3500 if we recover as a diagonal. 

Second, I am really talking after those higher levels. Because I have always wondered if a coin in an impulse can continue in perpetuity even if the technology is old, I spoke to Zac about old stocks he's watched. Apparently some bio tech stocks of old, around the Nasdaq bubble, saw 5 up only to fail in 2 down. So, maybe that happens to some of our coins? Makes some sense.

Finally, there is the fundamental question. EOS does what Ether does and better. But before we get hung up on fundamentals, there are a ton of platform coins out there, that aren't cutting it necessarily (QTUM, LSK for example) and their charts are fine as I recall, but I'll look to make sure. Also, it takes time for the businesses running on Ether to port over to EOS, but who says they all will. It will likely depend on how desperately they need EOS speed or ease of use. Otherwise, these teams may have something better to tackle.  I'm not a dev, but know how product development goes from my design days- you choose your battles. 

Finally, while institutions are piling slowly into EOS it doesn't have the exchange liquidity yet of Ether. That will change but institutions need liquidity and hedging mechanism to be safe in the trade. This is probably one reason BTC projects to $2M and Ether may continue. Once that liquidity turns on, you might get a feedback loop , and it might not turn off so easily, 

So, that's all the stuff swirling in my head. I really don't have easy answers, except in the chart where I know support and resistance lies. #longetherfornow.

Ryan Wilday hosts the Cryptocurrency Trading service on ElliottWaveTrader.net.