Follow the Trend Until It's Not

I really hope most followed a post I made as I believed we'd enter wave 2. I stated your job in a wave 2 correction is to preserve your capital. What that means to you, is up to you. I went to cash around $12,600. A little early. Yes, I went in sizeable around $8K-9K but quickly stopped out in 7850 when it was clear it had failed. I now have no core position. 

While some of you might have thought, 'well his chart doesn't look like it will take much time to bottom', or Bitcoin dropping to $4300 doesn't look bad', the problem is when the downtrend gets established, we really can't guarantee support will hold. Support is support, nothing more. EW based supports in my experience are reliable. They often hold. But at any given time any number of counts can be valid so you have to have an open mind. If you decided to ride this out, and your emotions are pushing on you, take stock of that. I learned the heard way that I have much less appetite for risk than I used to think I did. Further, when I left corporate life to trade for a living, I had to learn to tighten up even more, or risk undermining my family's life.

You can't control the past, but you can control your choices and what lessons you take away. Make note of this time, your emotions, your decision criteria and this moment will make you money in the future. 

Note trends when established are hard to change. We've been in a grind downward since May, with a few fakeouts, but no reliable reversal. And, even as we get close to support, we have to be aware that downtrends are hard to reverse. Take it patiently. 

Ryan Wilday hosts the Cryptocurrency Trading service on ElliottWaveTrader.net.