I went to bed last night wired. Thanks to a heavy dose of Vitamin B3 I got to sleep (awesome natural secret by the way). But I was wired enough to get thinking about what I see in the charts. Yesterday was evil. No doubt. I got hurt, and I know a few of you did too, well maybe most of you. I know some actually used yesterday's action to profit. Hats off to you. Good work. For you that that didn't just take stock of this moment, and consider what led you there. From an EW perspective, we have the worse case scenario. We took out the .764 retrace by a wide margin, didn't invalidate the 1-2 setup in 2019-2020, and then came back above the key resistance. I was hosed. I didn't blow up as I've learned all too well not to margin myself out too far. But It still hurt immensely. But I do see lots of opportunity to recover. Now, this post is very experiential in my work and by no means based on EW canon, so please hold this in to your 'memory bank' but don't assume this plays out. It just needs to be a strong alt view, not just based on Bitcoins' chart. but I see similar in many of our stronger alts. Just be ready.
This scenario where we nearly broke the 1-2 setup, but didn't invalidate it, often indicates not a wave 2 bottom but rather a B wave bottom as shown, of a larger B wave. And, if the case, while we have nice stick save, this doesn't setup a strong rally which is the red impulse on this chart. Rather it setups up a C wave breakout in a large B. This is really out of character on Bitcoin's long term. We have never seen a high B wave. Further, we had a WXY into the $3K low making this questionable. But regardless I am going to watch this closely. This is an easy scenario because the stops for the B wave top, to C wave transition are clear and more objective than the .764 retrace we breached, and came back from last hight. So, in my experience it is easy to dodge the pain, and then move to short.
As a trader, I really hope we see this scenario. For me its sets up the huge opportunity to accumulate massive amounts of Bitcoin. Plus this will cause me to evaluate whether this 4th wave is a higher degree fourth, perhaps primary. If the case, this sets up higher targets like $225-500K.