Deep Pinball on XLMUSD

Someone asked me in PM about the XLM chart. It was a very advanced question and this person obviously was studying pinball. I wanted to take the time to work through this question because it so good. Ask a well studied question and you invite me to turn very nerdy.

Note as I build out my Cryptocompare feed I don't have hourly data, so switching back to TV (white) for close in.

First the XLMUSD chart is at best a diagonal. This is obvious by the 3 wave top for 1. One might argument that it is a 1-2, i-ii. But I never rely on those I find the probability of a that setup in this condition to be next to 10-15%.

What this means it that we don't use the typical 1.618 and 2.0 extensions for iii and v. Rather we use 1.382 and 1.618. Further, we have to treat each leg of the diagonal as a 3 leg move, usually.  I have previously stated that we were in iii, but after studying further I believe just A of iii. Ghat has the same, this is due to the near impossibliliy of an extension to the 1.382 off the B. Otherwise I would expect this wave to get to .72-1.27. I don't see that here. But the .764-1.0 is a good target for A of the diagonal. this is shown on the Motive wave chart at .12-.29 (yes big range but that's cryptos for you).

Next, as we break down the A of iii leg and we'd expect an ABC pattern. That means in log (NOT LINEAR!!) that C is 1.0-1.382 of A. I'm using the green fibs for that and that is .18-.3. So, we are narrowing.

Now we go down to the hourly and I have to switch to TV. What I have on there is an extended three for C. And, in this one we have a nested two, so I am still looking for 2 more wave 4's to match that. In an extended three, I don't use our normal projection but I expect wave 4 to hold .618-.5 of the length of three, and the following five to hit the 1.236-1.382. That is what is shown on my chart. Because I don't have 5 of wave 3 yet, it is hard to put in 4 and the final 5, but I am estimating (with calculations and assumptions) and will micro adjust as we go. But right now my estimate is .18-.24. Regardless, what I'm seeing is confluence between this hourly chart, daily, and the A=C calculation for the A of iii. That means, I have a lot of faith in this target.

I need to emphasize that all these calcs are in log. If you use linear math you will get totally different answers.

XLMUSDhourly
XLMUSD - Primary Analysis - Dec-02 0932 AM (1 week)
Ryan Wilday hosts the Crypto Waves service on ElliottWaveTrader.net.