Crypto Winter - Market Analysis for Mar 21st, 2018
By
Ryan Wilday
Big thread last night on 'crypto winter' last night after I signed off, and thought I'd expound a bit and try to answer some questions I saw last night.
Crypto Winter is my word for primary iv. It is more a comment on price , not time. I'm not sure if I made it up the term, Zac made it up. Potentially it can be extended in time. iv of 3 is what we call the post Mt. Gox drop and it took 2 years but that is because it moved down in price quite 'lazily'. If price moves fast, crypto winter, could be shorter. We don't know. IFf it does move faster sentiment will wash out more quickly. Remember corrections are simply a means to shake out participants so they can power price later through chasing. A market only rises on new money.
Is crypto winter here?
Facts suggesting Crypto Winter arrived: We almost reached the 1.382 in BTC ($30K) That is typically the start of primary four, when we get a low hit for iii of 3 and we did at the Mt. Gox top.
Facts suggesting Crypto Winter is not here yet: Well, not a fact, but I don't believe we've ever had a proper iv of V of primary three. That to me is what we are in now. The only candidate for this necessary wave is the July bottom. The issues are two with that being iv of V of 3:
1) It makes the third of V of 3, the second shortest wave, barely longer than the first wave in log. (possible but not ideal).
2) That correction barely retraces .236 of the third of V of 3. Really shallow. Both are valid, but not ideal.
A break of $3500 (50% of the length of the third of v of 3) has me believing primarily that crypto winter has arrived.
$65K is my primary target with possible extension to the 1.618 at $157K.
Will money be made during this time?
Wave 4 corrections are notorious for chop and you will need to have skill to navigate well. I will be challenged as well. Most trades will be short but some long will be had. I will size down exposure to 10% of what I have in cryptos currency and focus on the long term entry. This entry will be the best entry we've had since the Mt. Gox bottom. It will be a dream provided the bull market survives.
