Alternate Waterfall - Market Analysis on Aug 16th, 2018

Jappel's validly called that my primary count is questionable if wave 3 as I have marked is shorter in price than 1, and certainly invalid if shorter than v. This would be an EW rule validation. This means that if below $4900 in this leg it is invalidated as an ending diagonal in the manner I have rendered in white. Therefore, unless it follows my alt red count, similar to JAppel's primary, and sees a wave 4, likely to the top of the channel before the final wave down, I have to consider my primary questionable. The other alternative, and I had been warning that such an event isnormal in bitcoin, is a waterfall into the $3500 region. I studied it this morning to see if any further concerns and I see none. While I can't call this primary, it is very much analogous to the July 2017 fractal that I've posted occasionally. Keep this as something to be aware of. I've warned of a waterfall potential and here I'm attempting to give it structure. Again, in July 2017 this pattern was fully retraced in a couple days, the ultimate stop run. So, it may be important not to make panic moves as it could be a delta $3000 'dip and rally type of move'

Note that I am operating on the context that with so many alts coming into completed patterns and key supports, I assume Bitcoin will not see the red count. This may prove to be a false assumption but it is what I am operating on at the moment and trading in such a way to manage both possibilities. The chart 'more complex' shows the white and red counts I've been working with. Waterfall is the new potential. 

BTCUSD - waterfall
BTCUSD - waterfall
BTCUSD - More Complex - Aug-15 1754 PM (6 hour)
BTCUSD - More Complex - Aug-15 1754 PM (6 hour)
Ryan Wilday hosts the Cryptocurrency Trading service on ElliottWaveTrader.net.