Algo Trial Period - Market Analysis for Jun 14th, 2018

FYI- In order to improve swing trading, I've been working on an algorhythm. I'm going to start to use the swing trades here as a record fo the algo trades for continued testing. I am still using Elliott Wave to add discernment 'by hand'. But I'm using the algo to 'see the unseen'. Sorry I cannot share it. It is based on some worth by a famous technician (will go unnamed), but is public work. But I have added my own approach to position sizing. And, I've backtested timeframes to find ideal settings. I want to see if I can work the equations I'm borrowing out of it, so will be playing with it. But that will take me more time than this.

Note some characteristics in backtesting:

1) Hit rate is actually low, but it will stop itself with higher skew when correct. It well out performs buy and hold. I'd rather go after skew than directional edge anyway. To use an example, DGB is at .027. I don't know where DGB started but let's say it started at 0 (impossible). You would have only made .027 per DGB to today. With the algo in my backtesting (without EW and my position work), you'd have made .08, nearly 3X buy and hold. And, it did that with with only a 41% success rate. (skew led)

2) I'm also going to use EW to stop it out earlier than it will at times.

3) I've added some position sizing guidance into the algo that improves risk but that means you should pay attention to the 'quarter, half, etc'.

All, this is to say note what you're following if you are. This is a work in progress, and I'm confident to trial it now. I'll note swing trades with 'ALGO'.

Long term portfolios will also be impacted by this work as it progresses, probably more so next round. It works in multiple timeframes. But needs history like EW. Some coins don't have it. With shorter timeframes most coins have enough history.

Note that I can't take 'what does the algo say' on request. It takes more work than that. I have to backtest and optimize each coin. We're going to start with ETH and BTC only for now.

THIS WORK IS NOT INFALLIBLE, but I view it as improving my 'eyesight' in this busy world. Don't overposition against it thinking it's a panacea. It's the work of a few humans :).

Ryan Wilday hosts the Cryptocurrency Trading service on