Whipsaw Mode - Market Analysis for Mar 26th, 2023

As we wrote last weekend:   "Almost all internal measures are on sell signals right now.. from the longest timeframe down to the shortest. If we look at the Sept end period last year, we had the internal low on the 9/26-27 timeframe and then the price low followed a few weeks later on 10/13. This is a possibility I am looking for - and it is the more bullish outcome in my opinion. The more bearish possibility is for price to chop around a bit more and then begin a trending move lower lasting several weeks which goes to new lows below the 10/13 lows.. Which one will it be?.. Anyone’s guess right now.. but best to be very cautious over the next few weeks. One of the indicators that supports more bearish outcomes is NYHL. Whenever this indicator has gone to a sell.. and I have not given much importance to it, I have always regretted it. In early 2022, this went to a sell after a brief attempt at a buy… and the market went lower soon after.. And right now, we had a buy on NYHL that triggered in Jan of this year.. and this failed to go back to a sell recently… Until it again goes back to a buy, it is best to be very cautious and be open to more bearish outcomes playing out. For the very short term, on price, getting above 3965 will have us retesting the highs above 4000 again… and below 3930 will have us testing the 3900 area again."    

Looking ahead to this week:   Internals on most timeframes stay on sells, but it is in whipsaw mode with one day sell/one day buy action happening.  Our Odds Indicator stayed on a buy. Price action continues to look choppy with no clear trend at the moment. This market is clearly a traders market. But we seem to have set some kind of low last week.  How long it will last is anyone’s guess, but I think we may continue in a choppy uptrend for a little while. With NYHL long term going to a sell signal, I no longer have anything in my long term accounts. In the past, whenever I have ignored the NYHL signal, I have regretted it eventually. The last time it went to sell was in early 2022. I remain long in trading accounts along with some other short term long positions but these may not last for long. I expect we get a few more days to maybe couple of weeks more of choppy upside and then another attempt at downside.

Price action is bullish short term, neutral medium term and neutral long term. We are partially long in trading accounts.

Grey zone resistance at 4037-47 and then 4071-81. Support is at 3999-87 and then the 3942-32.

For Monday, daily pivot is at 3986.  Resistance R1 is at 4035 and R2 at 4060. Support S1 is at 3961.5 and S2 at 3912.5.

All the best to your trading week ahead.

Princely Mathew hosts The Smart Money premium service at ElliottWaveTrader.