Three Views of the NDX

On the monthly Nasdaq 100 (NDX) chart, I am viewing the 2018 high as top of wave (3) of circle-3 off 2002 low, favoring two more waves higher before the rally off 2002 low completes.

Ideally, wave (4) under that count will reach at least 5386, with potential to retrace down to as low as 3888. For as long as no break below it is seen, higher is favored. Break below it opens up potential to completion of the entire structure, though technical confirmation of such completion will require a break below 2226. 

Zooming in (daily chart), while the potential for wave (4) to be complete exists (labeled as Alt), odds are against it. To shift potential in favor of completion, NDX needs to rally over 7206. Until then, I favor any such rally to be corrective, setting up for a deeper wave C down. With NDX having now retraced 50% of the decline, potential for completion of B exists.

Zooming in further yet (NDX intraday chart), as noted above, with NDX having now retraced 50% of the preceding decline, potential for completion of wave B exists (labeled as Alt).

That said, with a push to a new high seen on Jan 30, NDX now has the minimum number of waves to be considered an impulse. This further decreases the odds of a top of any significance being formed here, and increases the odds that December low was all of wave (4) (Alt count in the paragraph above).

At this point, expectation is that wave 1/a is topping, with minimum upside expectation already reached, and resistance at 7074. A sustained break below 6613 will be the earliest indication that 1/a completed; until then, potential for further extensions higher to complete 1/a exists (labeled as Alt).

Once such a break is seen, expectation is that b/2 will retrace at least 50% of the rally off the Dec low. Expectation for b/2 is that it will hold 5897, and will set up a move higher, which then may or may not break to an all time high.