$SPX - Market Analysis for Mar 19th, 2018

Futures are trading lower this morning, now officially below the 50 day SMA. This has placed odds in favor of a more significant high made last week, and the setup for further downside to be seen this week.

If further downside is seen, then the high made last week would likely count as either the (b)-wave of an expanded flat shown in red, or the circle b-wave of a corrective wxy off the February bottom.

The red count assumes a bottom already in place for the minor degree wave 4 at the February low, with wave i of 5 complete at the Feb. 27th high and now an expanded flat wave ii in progress since. Price would be starting the (c)-wave of ii off last week's high, that should target 2658 - 2619 SPX before completing.

Alternatively, the blue count allows for a slightly more bearish interpretation, with last week's high completing the circle b-wave of a much larger flat structure still in progress for minor degree wave 4. This would allow for price to head all the way back down, and likely below the February low before completing the larger flat close to 2500 SPX.

Either way, 2775 SPX is main resistance that will ideally hold for any bounces seen in order to maintain pressure to the downside.

$SPX - Micro - Mar-19 0601 AM (30 min)
$SPX - Micro - Mar-19 0601 AM (30 min)
Garrett Patten is a senior analyst at ElliottWaveTrader covering both U.S. and international equity indices as well as stocks.