Odds Increased for Significant Top on RUT Daily Chart
Starting with the 1-week chart, the Russell 2000 (RUT) fulfilled the upside price target I set out for it in my post on February 11, 2016. Furthermore, it reached those targets in what can count as a completed impulse off 2016 low. A sustained break below April's low (1482) would now be needed to confirm completion of the rally off 2016 low, and with it, to have me favor completion of the rally off 2009 low. Until such a sustained break is seen, however, potential for this wave to subdivide remains (Alt count).
Zooming in further to the RUT daily chart, RUT broke below 1663, increasing the odds of a significant top being in place. Confirmation of completion of the rally off April low requires a break below 1592. Until then, potential for the structure to subdivide higher remains, with bullish count shown as Alt, though the onus is now on the bulls to put RUT back in a constructive stance by first showing bottoming over 1592, and then developing a constructive bullish stance at a smaller degree. Until then, bears are in charge.
At a smaller degree (RUT 1hr chart), for as long as RUT remains below 1686.99, there is potential for it to continue in an impulse down, as illustrated by the primary count on this chart. IF such an impulse completes, it will be a confirmation that the move up off 2018 low completed, suggesting test of 2018 lows next. Conversely, breaking over 1686.99 without completing such an impulse would be needed to suggest that the Alt scenario on the daily chart may be in play, with that scenario becoming likely over 1724.38.
