More Near-Term Downside For European Markets?

The DAX made a marginally lower low today compared to last week's low, not providing evidence yet that either blue wave a or red wave iv has completed yet. A break back above 15540 is ultimately needed to clearly favor that, after which 15630 - 15880 would be the retrace range as resistance for a b-wave bounce. Until then, more near-term downside in blue wave a or red wave iv could be attempted with 15150 as the next fib support below.

The STOXX closed modestly higher today, but not providing enough off last week's low yet to assume that a local bottom as wave a has been struck with confidence. Above 41775 and we can make that assumption, after which 4205 - 4285 becomes the standard retrace resistance range as the target region for a b-wave bounce. Otherwise, the alternative is getting another low as an extension in wave a, with the 200 day SMA at 4065 as the next support below last week's low.

The FTSE closed higher today, keeping the door open to the bullish potential in blue that allows last week's low to be viewed as wave (iv) of an ending diagonal 5th off the September low. However, price needs to get back above at least 7210 to start more clearly favoring that path. Otherwise, if this bounce fails and price drops back below last week's low instead it would fit the red count as wave iii of (c) completing.

$UKX-FTSE - Micro - Nov-29 2009 PM (1 hour)
$UKX-FTSE - Micro - Nov-29 2009 PM (1 hour)
Garrett Patten is a senior analyst at ElliottWaveTrader covering both U.S. and international equity indices as well as stocks.